Since I was 15 and writing for
The Critic - the name of the student newspaper at South Haven High School - I have written Oscar prediction articles. It's one of those things that I'm not sure why I'm so into, but I am. I don't see the Oscars as any sort of great voice in decreeing what is best about cinema, but I do find it interesting to predict. Sometimes, they totally get it right, and, when they don't (
Million Dollar Baby is probably the worst Oscars winner ever), it's kind of fun to be mad about it.
I don't really feel like going into it too deeply tonight, but I want to get these down so I can look back at it next week or next year to see what I was thinking about the Oscars. In my basement, I still have the pre-Oscars article I wrote for the school paper the year that Letterman hosted. It's eleven years old.
Anyhow, I'm rooting for
Brokeback Mountain. It's one of those rare movies that lives up to its hype, and really was probably the most moving film I've watched in years. There are current rumors that
Crash might win, but I just didn't like that movie that much. It was fine, I guess, with good performances and cool moments, but I just don't think it had that interesting of ideas about race. My opinion on this category is not that informed, because I didn't see
Good Night, and Good Luck or
Munich, but I'll be happy if the favorite -
Brokeback Mountain - wins, especially absent my other favorite two movies of the year (
The Squid and the Whale and
Syriana).
I hope that Heath Ledger or Terrance Howard beat out Philip Seymour Hoffman for Best Actor, but I'm not sure why. I guess I just am more amazed by both of their performances. Ledger is very subtle in his role, and Howard is flashy, both both just totally transformed before my eyes. Hoffman, well, I just never forgot that it was him. He did have amazing moments - when he goes in to talk to the killer right before his execution, he blew me away - so I won't be disappointed when he wins. I'd just like a surprise.
As for Best Actress, to be honest, I don't have much of an opinion. I watched
Walk the Line today, and I thought Reese Witherspoon did a good job, and she's the favorite. That's the only movie I've seen out of the five nominated, so I guess I'm rooting for Reese.
I always think the Best Supporting Actor and Actress races are more interesting than anything else. In my dream nominations, Vince Vaughn got a nod for his hilarious turn in
Wedding Crashers, and Jane Lynch and Romany Malco both pick up nominations for the superb
40-Year Old Virgin. But that didn't happen. At least Catherin Keener got nominated for playing Harper Lee, though, so I'm definitely rooting for her. (Side note:
A biography of Harper Lee, the first ever, will be released in May, and of course I'll be reading it the first week it's out, and I wonder if it's going to reveal Lee to be a lesbian, because Keener totally plays her as one, doesn't she?) I'm rooting for George Clooney in the Best Supporting Actor category, if only because I feel like
Syriana was a great movie that should have gotten more attention than it did.
I'm rooting for
The Squid and the Whale for Best Screenplay,
Brokeback Mountain for Best Adapted Screenplay, and Ang Lee for Best Director. And I can hardly wait to hear "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" performed.
I usually find the Oscars themselves to be anti-climactic. I don't care what people wear, and don't care about the long introductions of boring categories. But I'm hopeful Jon Stewart will be amusing - I didn't like his selection as host, because I was ready for someone a little less cynical and into movies after Chris Rock last year - and since I'll be at a party, there shouldn't be any dull moments.
Speaking of which, I'm supposed to go as a nominee, but I don't know what I'm going to do yet. Last year, it was so easy to put a nose bandage on and go as Thomas Haden Church (and I'd gladly shoulder a beating like him for the chance to mess around with
Sandra Oh.