Wow, if I were a big Orioles fan, would I ever be mad right now at their off-season. First, backing up the truck to Jamie Walker's bank account to the tune of $12 million. Now, making Danny Baez the highest paid non-closer reliever in all of baseball? Absolutely ludicrous.
That's just being penny smart but dollar dumb. They've spent over $30 million on a couple of middle relievers, and they can't make a competitive offer to Derek Lee or Alfonso Soriano or Mark Mulder? They still don't have a first baseman?
Mike Flanagan was a cool player to watch pitch, but he's sure a poor GM. Unless there's some sort of Master Plan that I'm just not seeing. To hazard a guess based on what I've seen the last few years, that's just not the case. They're doing something to make it seem like they're doing something.
This is a team that needs to rebuild. Trading Tejada last summer when his value was highest would have been a start. Signing a couple of mediocre middle relievers for much more than they're worth seems to be the opposite direction. Nothing against Walker or Baez - they're both decent pitchers - but they're not worth anywhere near the money they're getting, and both of them could be replaced from the major league scrap heap without losing much quality.
It's not about payroll. It's about spending the available money wisely. The Orioles just aren't doing that at all. David DeLucci just signed with the Indians for less than Walker (who will pitch - maybe - 60 innings this year) signed with the O's. He would been a big step towards solving their corner outfield problem.
This totally reminds me of the horrid management the Tigers were hindered with for years under the "guidance" of Randy Smith, who was probably the worst GM in the history of baseball. Flanagan is giving him a run for his money, though.
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I'm not saying the signings were great, but if the Orioles had to pay what they did just to get two middle relievers to play here, what do you think it would have cost them to get a premier everyday player? Carlos Lee got $100M from Houston, which was bad in itself, but in this market with this team they would have had to give him Soriano money to play here. And Soriano would have had to gotten nearly A-Rod money to play. It's not just being penny-wise and pound foolish. Offering an extra million a year over their next highest bidder won't work (see Paul Konerko last year). The Orioles have their crappy reputation and near decade legacy of suckitude to deal with when it comes to the free agent market. That's what really costs them.
Soriano signed with the Cubs, who have sucked quite a bit recently. Lee - who the O's were apparently really interested in - wasn't even given an actual offer by them (according to press reports). I've seen how signing a big free agent can turn around a team - witness I-Rod and Ordonez with the Tigers. It helps. And sometimes just a big signing makes fans, and other players, know you're trying.
But I probably shouldn't have highlighted that part of it too much. I just can't believe they're signing middle relievers to the same money that decent (near) everyday players like Frank Catalonatto and David Dellucci have gotten this off-season.
I'd be interested to know what the next highest offer for Soriano was. I'm willing to bet it was nowhere near what he got from the Cubs.
This market is just nuts. Thankfully, it wasn't the Orioles who gave Gary Matthews, Jr. $50M for five years or Juan Pierre $44M.
I think Dellucci got overpaid by the Indians too.
sc is completely correct. The market is nuts since the teams are flush with increased revenue by virtue of the new CBA. Gary Matthews getting a 5-year deal based on his balls-out performance in one season is proof of that, along with the Dodgers vastly overpaying for Juan Pierre--a transaction that has been lambasted by SI's writers. In this context, the deals for both Baez and Walker seem minor.
As for the Carlos Lee deal, press reports here had it that the writing was on the wall that Lee wanted to stay in the NL and enjoy the tax-free state that is Texas. I cannot blame him there. As for Soriano, they are playing him in CF, where it will be even more difficult to mask his defensive shortcomings.
As for your statement that the O's needed to deal Tejada, you and others are completely wrong. Miguel was one of 2 O's to hit 20 or more HRs last year (with Hernandez's gaudy first half helping his cause). You remove him, and you make an offensively impaired team that much worse. Besides this, the attendance death knell for this team would be sounded as a result of such a deal.
As for the FO's sound decision-making, that point is certainly up for debate. They did identify the bullpen as a glaring weakness, and they have attacked it with an uncommon zeal. Nonetheless, the track record for recent bullpen acquisitions has been spotty, at best. (By the way, rumor has it the O's are close to getting Chad Bradford from the Mets, which makes this bullpen makeover all the more interesting.) I agree that nothing has been done to address the offensive needs--outfield and first base, and I would very much like them to at least have conversations concerning Mulder.
All of this said, will I go to an Orioles game next year? Who knows, as I am still annoyed after a run-in with an overzealous attendant in the 9th inning of a game. Changing the product on the field is one thing, but making the park more O's fan-friendly (as opposed to just fan-friendly) is a big thing, too.
Baez is 2nd highest non-closer (Farnsworth-NYY).
We scored plenty of runs last year with no career-seasons (Hernandez?). In fact, Tejada, Mora and Roberts had off-years offensively.
The bullpen needed the most help and the front office filled the holes. It's established that we have to overpay right now. Who wants to come here to face Boston and NY so often?
While Manny on the O's is a long-shot, keep an ear out for Adam Dunn's name during the Winter Meetings. Whatever it costs us in the trade would be measured against not only what he does (50 hr?) but also the effect his bat in the lineup has on Tejada's numbers.
Anon: Baez's contract is for $2 million more than Farnsworth's, at least according to rotoworld.com. And while I disagree that the bullpen needed the most help - bullpens holes can generally be plugged easily, while huge gaping offensive and SP holes cannot - I like the idea of bringing in Adam Dunn. He's a good player, and fun to watch. I'd love to see the O's get him. There are a ton of good offensive players available for cheap that the O's could go out and get if they were savvy. Unfortunately, I have no faith in their ability to do so. Dellucci and Catalonatto both would have helped the team quite a bit, but it didn't appear there was any interest at all from the O's.
Thomas - you don't want to trade Tejada, because - what - you don't want to lose your 4th place standing? The attendance problems really can't get much worse. This team either has to rebuild, or make a big splash in the free agent market. They're doing neither. It's like they're aiming for mediocrity.
The market is crazy, but Dellucci is a bargain. So was Catalonatto. Walker and Baez are much more overpaid than Lee and Soriano, but, again, the risk is much less. You've got to risk a lot for a superstar. Which is why the O's will not get any better anytime soon - an unwillingness to take any risks. I'm definitely not talking about the ridiculous Pierre deal, or the ridiculous Matthews deal. But Nomar went pretty cheap. So did Frank Thomas. As far as these off-season moves go, they've now spent nearly $50 million on three mediocre relief pitchers. Give me $10 million, and I could have done the same. Walker, Baez, and Bradford just aren't elite pitchers in any way, shape, or form. They're expendable. In fact, the O's traded away a pitcher I'd put in their class - Chris Britton - in a ridiculous deal for Jaret Wright earlier this off-season.
You missed my point regarding Tejada. It's not that he puts asses in the seats as that is clearly not the case. Instead, offensively speaking, he is the stir in the drink. Without him, this team is mediocre at best, even with Roberts and Mora. The O's lucked out in the sweet deal that landed them Corey Patterson, but his numbers against lefties are atrocious.
The Britton for Wright deal was not something I was a fan of. They expended one of the few bright spots in last season's bullpen for a 4 starter, at best. Granted, he is probably a large improvement over the laughable duo of Chen/Rodriguez.
As for risk-taking, let's look at recent history. There is not a lot of it in baseball, period. Most teams are entrenched in recreating the success of the Moneyball-type teams. You are not taking risks if most of your strategy is dictated by statistical data and SABR-metrics. Just like with econometric data, your risk is marginalized as a result of the statistical model you are applying. (Of course, this does not make the point of applying the correct statistical model, but I digress.) My point is that most risk-taking in baseball these days is taken by those with large checkbooks.
Would you really be willing to argue that your beloved Tigers took risks? Of all teams, they played it the safest to get where they are: grooming pitching from the minor leagues and some key acquisitions made via trades. They grab a couple of big names via free agency. Finally, they get it to gel together under a manager who has proved his mettle time and again.
I fail to see the risk-taking in this strategy, epiph. Please enlighten me.
JJT: Absolutely, the Tigers took plenty of risks. Who else was willing to give Rodriguez a 4-year contract? No one. It seems to me the Orioles are the ones they were competing with for the services, and they balked at 4 years, and ended up with Javy Lopez. See how that turned out. Same thing with Magglio. No other team was willing to take a risk on him the same way as the Tigers, and his signing paid some dividents.
But they took risks in other ways, too. Risking any sort of respectability at all by totally going to a youth movement in 2003 was a huge risk. It was a risk to be a laughingstock of baseball. It was a risk to rush several players (Bonderman especially) to the majors. But the risk paid off.
I see the Orioles in a similar spot now. They're a bit better than the Tigers were, but still just primed for mediocrity. If the Tigers spent nearly $50 million on three mediocre middle relievers in 2003/2004, I would have been irate. You either make a big splash, and really try to do something, or you rebuild. This playing it safe will net them yet another 4th place finish, without much hope for the future.
Tejada "stirs the drink"? What drink? A drink that nets a 4th place finish? If the Orioles aren't willing to spend the money for a big stud, then they shouldn't be fiddling with the likes of him right now when his value is so high. Grab three great prospects for him, or more, and build something for the future. Tejada is not at an age anymore where you build around him. He should have been traded last summer.
Of course, if the O's go out and trade for Adam Dunn, and get Barry Zito or something, then they immediately jump into respectability. Don't see it happening, though. I think they'll be happy with the mediocrity of signing three middle relieving and freaking Kevin Millar. And there will be yet another 4th place finish.
I realized that I also called for the signings of some cheap players, like Dellucci and Catalonatto (both bargains this off-season), because I think it's fine to plug some spare parts with free agents if you're not willing to go out and get a big name. But those two guys are worth the money they're getting. The middle relievers are not.
The weird signings of Walker, Baez, and Bradford are the type to put a good team over the edge, but make no sense for a lousy team.
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